Forecasting the Future: From Changing Weather to Changing Habitats, with the Met Office
In this episode, we meet Grahame Madge from the Met Office, a climate communicator and wildlife observer who explores how Scotland's changing climate is reshaping our landscapes and wildlife.
While climate conversations often focus on distant impacts, profound changes are happening here. Native species such as the Scottish crossbill face uncertainty as warming pushes its habitat beyond our borders, whilst Mediterranean species like little egrets increasingly visit our shores.
Extreme weather accelerates these shifts. Scotland's record 34.8°C in July 2022 offers a glimpse of what may become the new normal, creating conditions where local extinctions are likely for vulnerable species.
Grahame explores how nature serves as both victim and potential saviour. Scotland's peatlands and forests provide crucial carbon storage, while natural coastal defences help communities adapt to rising seas. These nature-based solutions show why protecting our natural world supports both biodiversity and human resilience.
The conversation concludes with hope through action - creating connected habitats and using citizen science to record local wildlife, providing crucial data while deepening our connection with nature.
Information:
Met Office – Climate Change in the UK
Met Office – Effects of Climate Change
Transcript:
Kirstin
Welcome to Make Space For Nature from NatureScot, the podcast celebrating Scotland's nature, landscapes and species.
I'm Kirstin Guthrie, and in this episode Tim Hancox and I explore how climate change is impacting Scotland's wildlife and natural world through shifting weather patterns. Joining us is Grahame Madge from the Met Office to examine how our changing climate affects Scotland's ecosystems and biodiversity.
From warmer, drier summers to increasingly wet winters, we hear how these weather shifts are transforming habitats and challenging wildlife across Scotland and beyond. We explore how species are adapting to extreme weather events, what changing seasons mean for migration patterns and breeding cycles, and how the natural world is both responding to and helping buffer these climate impacts.
So, whether you're a nature enthusiast or simply someone who's noticed changes in local wildlife, this conversation reveals the profound connections between our climate and nature.
So hi Grahame and welcome to the Make Space For Nature Podcast. Can we start off if you can introduce yourself and just tell us a bit about your work at the Met Office please?
Grahame
Hi glad to be here. My name is Grahame Madge. I am a climate communicator at the Met Office, but I've also been involved in climate change for about two decades or more through former work with the RSPB, where I was also a science communicator. But I've been observing wildlife around the UK, including Scotland, for the last 50 or so years, so have a lot of experience of how our wildlife is changing in response to climate change. So kind of a coincidence that my lifespan also spans the time where we're seeing some of the most fundamental changes to our wildlife and countryside.
Kirstin
Excellent. So your knowledge is in depth with nature, weather and climate change, which is perfect. And you know that we know that weather's changing in response to climate change and we've all experienced warmer, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters. But you know, how much of that is just natural fluctuations versus actual climate change impacts, do you think?
Grahame
That's a great question. Our climate is almost infinitely variable. So we're capable of seeing very cool summers, very warm summers, and all of that natural variation plays out, whether we've got climate change or not. What climate change does is it lifts all of that natural variability upwards. So in a future climate we will still get variable conditions. We'll still get cold days. We'll still hopefully still get frosts and occasional snow events. It's just that when you look at the pattern of the observations, the warmer days are likely to be warmer than they would have been before the background climate change started to raise temperatures and the colder events are likely to be less cold. So let's look at a very recent example that I'm sure will be familiar to many listeners. The Beast from the East, so we had that event back in 2018. It was a significantly cold event, which broke some climate records. It would have always been cold. But speculation is that that event was less cold than it would have been, say, a century or so ago because of that background warming. So we're always going to see natural variability play out in our climate record, but what we are seeing is almost the register of climate events being lifted from the bottom up.
Tim
Hi, Grahame, that's a great reference. The Beast from the East that I'm sure most of us still remember. So seeing the general changes, but also comparing to that kind of more extreme weather events or even more extreme than the Beast from the East that we've experiencing. How important is it that we focus on these extremes rather than just relying on the averages when we're trying to understand climate impacts?
Grahame
We will see climate change both through the averages and the extremes, and perhaps we should explain a little bit more about that. So, let's look at global temperature, for example. So the average global temperature since preindustrial times has risen by around about 1.3°C Since the period 1850 to 1900, now that is a very significant rise, but people would perhaps not notice a rise of 1.3° in the daily temperature. The natural world notices these things, so a rise of 1.3° is significant, but it's most significant when you get that temperature added to extreme events, and let me give you a recent example. So back in July 2022 the UK recorded for the first time temperatures in excess of 40° C and that wasn't just one observation, I believe there were half a dozen stations that recorded temperatures of that value. Mid-July that year also saw Scotland record its highest temperature of 34.8°, so those extreme temperatures are something that are very noticeable in terms of wildlife impacts, because what you're doing is by creating a climate where those temperatures can play out, it puts some species on the edge of their ability to be able to survive those events, particularly if they're a long lasting heatwave, for example, or a long lasting drop. We're likely to see temperatures of more than 34.8 being recorded in Scotland over the next few years. That's a record that's almost bound to go. We're likely to see a 35° sea temperature in Scotland at some stage, and by the end of the century, extreme temperatures of 35° in Scotland and so summer may become more the norm. It might be an event, perhaps, that happens every few years, if not every year. So what we're seeing is an increase in the average temperature, which does have some environmental impacts, but it's perhaps with the extreme events that we're more likely to notice changes. Because when wildlife is struggling to hang on. If you look at, say you know population of dragonflies or something like that, it might be that extreme event which pushes that species beyond its resilience at that location and therefore you're likely to get something into an extinction event or be it at a local site because of those extremes, whereas the increase in average temperature will put a general stress on the species, but it's the extremes that are likely to be where the most notable impacts are felt.
Tim
And do you think it's more likely that the extremes will just get more and more extreme or if it is it more a case of the number of extreme events is going to increase or possibly both?
Grahame
Well, we are seeing in the global record some very interesting events happening, so you can cast your mind back to British Columbia or a few summers ago, the Canadian record for temperature was broken by something like 4 degrees. When parts of British Columbia experienced an extreme heat wave and we saw extreme temperatures for extreme events, I should say increase by more than the average. So there is this concern among climate scientists that if we start to see the extremes increasing more than the mean. Then we really do have some significant problems because in a static world you would perhaps expect the mean and the extremes to increase by the same rate, but if you are experiencing conditions where the extreme events are reaching higher values than the average rise, then you really do have some problems and we are really beginning to get into uncharted territory. We're seeing temperature values around the world which haven't been seen certainly in the period of recorded weather observations and that really is concerning because we've seen marine heat waves around the UK. We've seen even in the 10 years that I've been at the Met Office, I've seen two UK records go and maybe in the next five years or so, we might see another one. So, it is extremely concerning that these extreme temperatures do seem to be increasing more than the average value.
Tim
You mentioned before, Grahame, that the impact that these extremes can have on species, in particular when and you know when it comes to floods or droughts or and a major impact that it can have on landscape as well. But is there ever a case where nature is the one impacting the weather itself as well?
Grahame
I think the evidence for that is quite hard to establish, but what we can see is that nature has a huge role to play in mitigating our climate. So, for example, with trying to curb the emissions of greenhouse gases. Natural processes have a role to play in trying to prevent the release of carbon from peatlands, from forests from other areas, so trying to keep the carbon in natural stock is incredibly important and obviously Scotland has a huge role to play in that. With both extensive forests and peatlands, but also nature will help us adapt. So when I was at the RSPB we were at that time involved in huge projects to do with managed realignment, where you're setting coastal sea defences back, in order to provide natural benefits to help with flood alleviation and management of silt and all those other things that are important in managing the dynamic coastline. And that also is very important so as much as nature will help us to mitigate we would be foolish in not turning to nature to help us to adapt to the climate change that is coming and let's recognise for a moment that we are, at this time in this decade, seeing the warmest temperatures, the highest temperatures that have been recorded in the instrumental record in the UK. But in another 50 years, those temperatures will be quite modest by comparison to what we'll see going forward. So we have to think of tackling climate change and using nature as an incredibly valuable ally but also it will help us to become more resilient and to adapt to the further change that's coming.
Kirstin
So can you give us some examples of you know when nature has been degraded and the impacts that that's had as well please Grahame?
Grahame
So I think we can look at a very good example here of huge forest of Amazonia. So it's often regarded perhaps a bit of a cliche of being the lungs of the planet, but while that cliche may be there, it is true that the Amazon forest is a regulator. It's almost like a gyroscope on the on the global climate, and what our colleagues in Brazil are beginning to observe is with a changing climate, there is a real risk of the Amazon forest drying out. So when you've got the huge intact forest, it creates the conditions where you get this cycle of transpiration. So you get rainfall in the forest that falls to the forest floor and then the trees re-release that moisture and so it goes on. So you've got a rolling process of moisture delivery across the Amazon Basin. Because of the extent of the forest, and we're seeing Amazon forest degraded for a variety of reasons through wildfire through logging through general habitat change, and the concern is that that could become a major tipping point if we reach a point. Where the system becomes unsustainable, then there is a very real risk that areas that were once lush rainforest vegetation could quite quickly and dramatically tip to becoming Savannah, for example, so this isn't something that's likely to happen imminently. But it will happen at a certain global warming level. So currently we're about 1.3° above the preindustrial level. The danger is that we don't know what the global warming level for these tipping points is, so we know that they're out there. They're almost like monsters out in the dark, and we risk getting increasingly closer to them. But we don't know that. The science isn't confident enough to be able to tell us, is it 2°, is it 3° that this will become a problem? We know that they're out there, lurking in the darkness but we also know that the more we raise the planetary temperature, the closer that we are to get to these particular challenges. And that would be a obviously a devastating impact not just for South America, but for the planet as a whole because the climate regulation that the services that the Amazon provides are irreplaceable.
Tim
Just looking at different species and as far as animals and plants that are affected, possibly more than others by climate change, and you often have get the picture painted of the average person on the street has heard as they think of melting ice caps and stranded polar bears. But I think that the issue sometimes they're being there is that that disconnect where they say, well, where I live, there are no icebergs or polar bears. So if we think of Scotland itself with you know different amounts of resilience or vulnerability. Are there particular animals or plants that that are more susceptible that that are going to be impacted by climate change that you you're aware of?
Grahame
There certainly are. So there have been many studies looking at the distributions of species, so and individual species. Let's take an iconic one for Scotland as a type of finch called the Scottish crossbill. So this species only exists in Scotland and it's dependent on Scots pine, so studies have been done looking at the climate space for Scottish crossbill. So at the moment it's in the heart of its range in the Scottish Highlands, extremely dependent on Scots pine and the Caledonian pine forests in general. But climate change could well force the range of that species to another location further north, beyond Scotland, so its climate space is quite likely to move north, as is happening already with climate spaces of many other species. And what will happen? Where will that species go? It would be dependent on regrowth of Scots pine somewhere else to the range that it needs to move to. And that could become a significant challenge, not just for that one species, but for that whole network of species which rely on habitats in Scotland. And another example might be a dragonfly called the white-faced darter. So in the UK it has quite a northerly distribution. Particularly around areas of peatland. But decades ago it used to be found, even as far South as the South of England, where the climate for that species is no longer suitable. It still occurs in parts of central England and further north, but as we start to see climate change, putting pressure on species in the South and moving them further north, you might see some species arriving in Scotland, I mean species like speckled wood butterfly orange tip are becoming more common in Scotland, where they were perhaps more confined to England and Wales. But at the other end you've got species like the redneck phalarope, a small brightly coloured wading bird which nests in Scotland in Shetland. That's really an Arctic species, so it's on the southerly edge of its range and what's going to happen there if that species range moves north then we're likely to lose it. So there are a number of species where the range is moving north there will be some addition to Scotland's flora and fauna from species coming in from England, just as there are species arriving in southern England from northern France. But we'll also see, inevitably, the loss of species, perhaps from the Cairngorm area of the Highlands, perhaps from some of the more northerly islands, particularly areas like Shetland, where the climate will just be too warm or unsuitable for those species, and their range will move north but where do they move to? Because obviously in in the terms of the British Isles at least, there isn't anything further north in that longitude before you get to Iceland or even the Arctic. So that's quite an interesting concept to me, the fact that when you look at the latitudes across Europe, there's not as much land mass further north than Scotland across Europe than there is further South. So species that need to move further north, will they actually have the room to move to, or that indeed the capability. So even if the space is there for some species to move noth, will they be able to have the dispersal mechanisms to get them to potentially new areas.
Kirstin
And so do you think that's going to impact on what we think of as Scottish species, habitats and landscapes? You know, you know, you've mentioned how we hear about it on the news, a lot of different species turning up in different places. You know, we've got a lot of invasive, non-native species that obviously, NatureScot do a lot of work on trying to control. So do you think that's going to be impacted by the species changing where they are? Are they going to thrive more here, you know, easily. How's that going to impact on these species, do you think?
Grahame
There will be significant impact, so if I can just give you an example. So I live in Devon and in winter I'm used to seeing species of birds that arrive in winter. Various grebes and birds, which come to our coasts in Devon. But those numbers are ebbing away as our winters warm. And now when I go to my local bird watching haunts on the coast or on the Exe Estuary I’m more likely to encounter species like little egret or spoonbill or great egret. Even glossy Ibis. These are all species which when I started my bird watching back in the 70s, they were species that you would probably have to go to the Mediterranean in order to see, and now I can see these species in winter around my home. But we're losing species that I would formerly have seen - grebes and some of the wading birds, and certainly the numbers species like Bewick swan for example, ebbing away from parts of their range in in southern Britain. So I think there will be inevitably changes and that that those changes will happen in Scotland as well. You mentioned around invasive non-native species and again I think there's a good example here which we could use is the Asian hornet. So I'm not sure whether Asian hornet has been recorded in Scotland yet. It's just becoming established in parts of the Channel Islands and southern England, so that species was accidentally introduced into France and it's making its own way north it's quite likely to become regularly established. I haven't seen one yet, but I'm perfectly expecting that I will encounter one in the next few years and I would fully expect that that species would begin to move north it may not be a species, a pest that Scottish beekeepers have to worry about this year or next year, but it is something that undoubtedly will spread through the British Isles, as have many other invasive non-native species. Harlequin ladybird to give another good example, so climate change, especially with warmer winters will provide an opportunity for these species to overwinter where they might not have been able to do that in colder climates, but they will have the opportunity to become more readily established and that sort of dramatically changes the balance in favour of these new species which are able to colonise quickly and survive at the expense of other, perhaps more sensitive, less resilient species that would find it more difficult to cope.
Tim
Grahame a lot of this is obviously incredibly concerning, but also you know some of those examples you're offering, it's, you know, it's really interesting as well if you if you sort of set aside how scary all the changes are. I'm curious if in in your research there's anything else you've come across that's you've found really interesting if we if we for a second just close our eyes to the fear for globally what's happening. But you know any anything of interest that's you've noticed?
Grahame
I think one of the areas that will be more of a focus for naturalists and climate scientists is what's happening to the marine environment. So species like basking shark, for example, were formerly widespread in Southwest waters. We don't see them now, only very rarely, but I understand they are occurring more regularly in parts of particularly the West of Scotland. So you know, there are some potential changes and I don't know whether it's a benefit but I guess if you've got basking sharks just off the coast where you didn't have them before, that feels like a benefit. But there will be other things where things conditions change and we begin to lose cultural connection with some species which have been regarded typically British or Scottish, and we might just not have them anymore, so that's a real concern. But I think that, you know, the one point that I would say is that by trying to make our landscapes, nature reserves, habitats, as resilient as possible because, you know, we're not looking at the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in isolation, we're looking at centuries of change of species, populations being put under stress through persecution or through other land use change. So trying to make our landscapes as resilient as possible, we'll ensure that we're able to hang on to these species if not in perpetuity, at least give them a best chance of survival by making our nature reserves more extensive, increase the network, connect the network and improve the quality because although nature reserves are sometimes created with particular species in mind, in the case of, you know, my Devon example, the wetlands that were created for the arrival of winter, visiting birds in number from the Arctic are actually providing a refuge for birds, which are coming the other way from the Mediterranean so we don't know, we can't predict everything that our nature reserves and special landscapes and habitats will be important for in future. But we know that those sites will still be of importance for nature and by making them as resilient as possible, we give those species which are hanging on the best chance of survival, and those species arriving the best chance of being able to colonise.
Tim
It sounds like for a long time people have been knowing, the scientists have seen climate change was coming and we've been trying to work out how to stop it or prevent it or reverse it. It sounds like one of the things we have to do is accept the inevitable, that there will be some change and try to plan for it. Would you think that's fairly accurate?
Grahame
That's absolutely accurate. You know, in my lifetime, I've gone from not really being aware of any climate change in my youth to oh climate change is a thing. And I'm going to see it and now I'm seeing very dramatic climate change with my own eyes through the species that I love to watch and photograph, so that is something that will continue. We are going to have to make some very difficult decisions about perhaps choices about what we choose to hang on to and what we can protect, but I think taking a good look at the nature crisis and the climate crisis together, although both of those issues seem very intractable, tackling them as separate issues is even more of an effort than looking at them holistically in a single view and thinking well if we can help to tackle the climate crisis by looking at the nature crisis then we will make a lot of progress on trying to tackle both.
Kirstin
You know, you sound like you obviously spend a lot of time outside outdoors enjoying nature and a bit of bird spotting as well, and photography. Now we've spoken about a lot of species and I'm pretty sure one of the best things that people can do to help this is record species so be that, citizen science, these kinds of volunteering opportunities. Is there anything else that you would say would make a real difference to our listeners what they can actually do to help our nature and climate, you know, no matter how small, but what's your top tips that you could suggest?
Grahame
Well, we all have a carbon footprint and we all should consider how we can reduce that carbon footprint for the sake of the planet. I'm not going to suggest any particular measures because it's very much up to individuals to make a choice, but we all have a responsibility to try and reduce the overall emissions. But I think in general, I think I'm becoming more aware that recording nature is more important now than it ever was because we need to be able to monitor what's happening and perhaps find the last vestiges of species distributions in the South and look for species that are colonising further. Understanding how the populations and the timing of natural events as much as the presence or absence of species. You know, we've seen huge changes in phonology, the study of the timing of natural events with flowering times and the emergence of insects, and all of those natural cycles altering. So actually understanding this and having all of the change is grounded in the in evidence that scientists can look at to document the change and hopefully mitigate some of the impacts is vitally important. Everybody can take action for wildlife in terms of recording the wildlife about them from your local garden through to perhaps a park or your favourite walk. And that's something that we can all do for science to help scientists understand and document the changes. But that's actually good for our soul to go out and engage with nature. So why not - the opportunities for engaging in citizen science have never been better. We all have a phone in our pocket. Let's use them and record the nature around us.
Tim
Thank you so much Grahame for coming on and it's been fantastic to have you to find out more about the changes that you're seeing in, in your research and the findings that we're seeing in the correlation between the climate change and the changes in the biodiversity and species we're likely to find here in Scotland and again I can only echo what you've just told us that let's get more people out. Citizen science is recording data, and let's see what we can find out is coming our way so we can be best prepared.
Grahame
Yeah, absolutely.
Kirstin
Thanks for listening. For more ways to connect with and help protect Scotland's natural world, go to nature dot Scot.
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