This study shows that a clear increase in extreme drought risk in Scotland is likely in the imminent future. Using modelled temperature and precipitation data and a drought index, changes in extreme drought were calculated for the near future (2021-2040) in comparison to a baseline period (1981-2001). The results showed increases in both the number and length of extreme drought events in the near future. These changes were then mapped to highlight areas and seasons with the greatest projected change, enabling identification of 'hotspot' areas that may be at most risk. These results can be used to direct mitigation and management actions to these areas, enabling pre-emption of drought damage and facilitating improved resilience to extreme weather events.
Publication 2021 - NatureScot Research Report 1228 - Anticipating and mitigating projected climate-driven increases in extreme drought in Scotland, 2021-2040